The Effect of the Major-Grain-Producing-Areas Oriented Policy on Crop Production: Evidence from China

As a powerful actor in the global food system, China experienced significant drop crop production from 1998 to 2003, which posed substantial threat national security and led establishment of 13 major grain-producing areas (MGPA). Although some qualitative research has found that MGPA policy plays an important role ensuring security, quantitative evidence on effect its potential mechanism remains scarce. Based China’s interprovincial panel data 2018, this study used difference-in-differences (DD) estimation strategy analyze treatment by taking assignment as quasi-experiment. The results showed enforcement significantly increased production, especially terms grain, rice wheat yields. average grain yields were raised 27.5%. event analysis effects sustainable following years implementation. This also explored alternative causal channels mainly expanding planting areas, improving level mechanization increasing transfer payments. These findings demonstrate effectiveness developing country setting, could enlighten policymakers less well-developed countries boosting maintaining security.